Any sort of pattern could be in play by this stage, but progressive filly 6. Sneaky Island emerges fifth-up in her first real prep and slips back to maiden grade. Hit the line impressively in a handy class 1 at Canberra 20 days ago, and will relish the conditions, by multiple group 1 champ Pierro and out of a US-bred mare.
Dangers: Keep safe metro filly 4. Calm Down who improves second-up; while watching the betting on imported filly 7. Awesome Wonder having her first Australian start off an eight-month spell behind two quiet trials.
How to play it: Sneaky Island to win
Odds and Evens: Split
Race 5 – 2.50pm: CLASS 1 HCP (1600m)
After tracking the speed and surging past to win easily here at his third start, progressive Dissident three-year-old 3. Duke Of Gordon can salute again staying at the mile in a race of little depth. Lightly raced with plenty of wet track experience already.
Dangers: Local three-year-old 4. Shorebreak has been competitive enough deep into his first prep.
How to play it: Duke Of Gordon to win
Odds and Evens: Odds
Race 6 – 3.25pm: BENCHMARK 64 HCP (1350m)
Keen on metro filly and fourth start country maiden winner 10. Georgian Bay with the form behind that win was very strong, and this race severely weakened. Bred to handle the wet, and draws to get cover.
Dangers: Tough mare 3. Crazy Train did her best work late resuming at Hawkesbury, and drops in grade here.
How to play it: Georgian Bay to win
Odds and Evens: Split
Race 7 – 4.05pm: CLASS 1 HCP (1200m)
Tactical and open battle. Like the value of Zoustar four-year-old 2. Sabino fourth-up in conditions he should love. Defied a betting to drift to finish hard and land her maiden two starts back before taken to the front and collared late in similar grade at Scone. More effective when ridden from behind.
Dangers: Progressive three-year-old 5. Daichi can figure second-up after working home late on a bog track at Kembla, and draws to get early cover. Keep safe resuming three-year-old 4. Cushy who has been given two trials by a smart city yard. Include improving colt 1. Mission Value who churned through the mud to land his maiden here second-up a fortnight ago, and has reportedly trained on well; while lightly raced home tracker 7. Oakfield Mahogany can improve sharply second-up with key gear changes.
How to play it: Sabino each-way and box exacta 2,4,5
Odds and Evens: Split
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Race 8 – 4.40pm: BENCHMARK 64 (1000m)
We wrap the meeting over the short course, and this stacks up nicely for provincial three-year-old 3. Harlem Groove first-up at good odds. Consistent sprinter on rain-affected ground, and won the second of two recent trials.
Dangers: Consistent three-year-old 2. Selhurst Park hasn’t missed a place in four runs this prep, and draws to get good cover right behind the speed. Provincial four-year-old 1. Crimson Rock led all the way in heavy ground first-up.
How to play it: Harlem Groove to win
Odds and Evens: Split
BEST BETS
R2 4. NOT THAT EASY
R4 6. SNEAKY ISLAND
BEST VALUE
R8 3. HARLEM GROOVE
Tips supplied by Racing NSW.
Full form and race replays available at racingnsw.com.au.
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